Oscars Forecast: Jackie Tipped To Win Best Picture

While February 26 is some weeks away, the Golden Globes kicked off the awards season in earnest. Many are now fixating on the mother load - the Academy Awards. This is what all the actors, directors, screenwriters and studios focus on. And, if an artificial-intelligence apparatus known as Luminoso Technologies has anything to say about the matter, the winner for Best Picture is already a foregone conclusion.

By a simple method of analyzing movie reviews across 2013-15 in IMDb, the company outlines the top 50 most popular films within each given year in the context of natural-language processing. They will then correlate as to the concepts that appeared within their specific language which provides them a list of likely candidates for the award.

Predictable Group, But Not The Order

Sully Oscar

While the names on the page will come as a shock to no one, the Golden Globes might have been a false indicator as to who will take home the glory. Luminoso took into account a total of 84,058 movies via IMDb. And they have released the results of the probable 2017 winners in order.

  1. Jackie
  2. Moonlight
  3. La La Land
  4. Fences
  5. Sully
  6. Hell or High Water
  7. Silence
  8. Snowden
  9. Hacksaw Ridge
  10. Jungle Book
  11. Arrival
  12. Nocturnal Animals
  13. Manchester by the Sea

All 13 titles have a strong case to pitch to the Academy. Including Mel Gibson's comeback Hacksaw Ridge, Martin Scorsese's religious masterpiece Silence and Clint Eastwood's retelling of Sully. Yet the analytics point to Pablo Larraín’s biopic with Natalie Portman in the leading role as Jacqueline Bouvier Kennedy as the favorite.

Pundits Disagree With Jackie Call, Favor La La Land

La La Land Musical

As the Producers Guild Nominations quickly follow in the footsteps of the Golden Globes, many still give the frontrunner tag to Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone via their musical La La Land. Vulture's Kyle Buchanan spoke with the folks at FiveThirtyEight and argued that the Globes did not really alter the landscape that much, should history be any guide.

"I think we’ve known since September that La La Land was the Best Picture frontrunner, and while this obviously confirms that long-held assumption, it also puts wind into the film’s sails right as it’s going into wide release," stated Buchanan. "Boosted by the Globes, I expect La La Land to make over $100m at the domestic box office, which would likely make it the highest-grossing contender of the likely best picture nominees. That said, there is still room for a surprise yet to come, though not much!"

Source: Variety, FiveThirtyEight

Comments